Well, well, well — if it isn't another record day at the pump. Phil Rosen here.
Global oil markets are reeling, supply shortages are no secret, and summer driving season is upon us. And it turns out that OPEC can't really do much about it.
Let's get started.
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1. How high will oil need to go to trigger a recession? A daunting question, sure, but DataTrek analysts say there's a correct answer: "We still believe $140/barrel is the level to watch as a recession indicator."
Wall Street says that grim milestone is nearly upon us with both Goldman Sachs and Bank of America predicting $140 a barrel for international and US prices.
What's more, the UAE's energy minister said Wednesday prices are nowhere near their peak with China's economy set to reopen soon.
Even though OPEC+ announced a production boost just a week ago, oil prices have shot above $123 this week and experts say there's nothing the cartel can do to bring them lower.
"The market is questioning whether OPEC countries can actually meet the call for higher production," a portfolio manager told me yesterday.
Think back to Econ 101: There's a serious supply problem, which means prices can only turn lower if something changes on the demand side.
Here's how a top oil analyst explained it: "We have Russian barrels coming off the market, OPEC struggling to increase production, the US unable to increase production — if the supply side is unable to help bring prices down, we have to look to demand."
(Listen to me talk about oil markets on today's episode of The Refresh from Insider.)
2. US stock futures edged higher early Thursday, ahead of weekly jobless data and before Friday's key read on consumer inflation. Meanwhile, Europe is braced for the ECB's upcoming monetary policy meeting. Here are the latest market moves.
3. On deck today: Bilibili Inc, Comtech Telecommunications, and Docusign, all reporting. Plus, look out for the ECB's monetary policy decision statement at 6:45 am ET.
4. US stocks have rarely been this cheap, and investors should buy these high-quality companies that became bargains in May. Morningstar's top US strategist said stocks are trading at hefty discounts, and growth stocks are the cheapest. The analyst said investors should target these 8 stocks.
5. Elon Musk's Twitter bid attracted an abundance of big-name backers. Including Alexander Tamas, the secretive founder of a Dubai-based investment firm who has links to Russian-Israeli billionaire Yuri Milner. Tamas has committed $700 million to finance Musk's bid, but he isn't the biggest outside investor.
6. Stocks will return to their 2022 highs even if oil hits $135 a barrel, JPMorgan's quant guru predicted. The US economy is strong enough to weather even a 25% rise in crude, Marko Kolanovic told CNBC Tuesday. He explained why this time rising barrel costs won't be a headwind for stocks.
7. Short-bets against meme stocks are on the rise as GameStop's price holds ground. Short interest as a percentage of total shares outstanding has soared more than 135% for the video game retailer since late December. Here's what you want to know.
8. Bonds are having their worst year in four decades, but an exec at JPMorgan Asset Management has his eye on several key opportunities. Bob Michele, head of global fixed income, said what's happening in the bond market is even more noteworthy than stocks. He explained three ways to invest in bonds, even with a recession possibly set to strike next year.
9. The portfolio manager at $631 billion Federated Hermes broke down how to structure your portfolio as the odds of a recession rise dramatically. Steve Chiavarone thinks a recession could arrive in 2023 or 2024 — he shared 6 economic indicators to closely monitor for weakness ahead.
10. Gen Z and millennials are feeling optimistic about their finances. But Gen X and boomers are pretty bummed-out about their prospects. And across the board, Americans are concerned about inflation.
Keep up with the latest markets news throughout your day by checking out The Refresh from Insider, a dynamic audio news brief from the Insider newsroom. Listen here.
Curated by Phil Rosen in New York. (Feedback or tips? Email [email protected] or tweet @philrosenn.) Edited by Hallam Bullock (tweet @hallam_bullock) in London.